June 18th, 2019
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher today. Most lenders were still quoting the same rates compared to Friday with the only difference being slightly higher upfront costs. This means the rate at the top of the average mortgage quote is still within striking distance of the lowest levels since September 2017.
Rather than focus on the journey that has already occurred for rates, it's quickly becoming important to focus on the path ahead. Reason being: rates have generally been flat for more than 2 weeks now. This is incredibly uncommon given the pace of improvements in the several weeks before that. With the Federal Reserve releasing a policy announcement and updated forecasts on Wednesday (both hotly anticipated by financial markets), it seems clear that the sideways momentum in rates is due to anticipation of a breakout.
A breakout (i.e. a sharp move higher or lower after a period of sideways consolidation) is never a guarantee, but we're increasingly likely to see one this week. The direction of the breakout would depend on what the Fed says.